Reliability forecast: how will the 2002s fare?(Annual Auto Issue 2002)(Directory)(Buyers Guide)(Statistical Data Included)

Reliability is a key consideration for any car buyer, but real-world reliability information can be hard to find. That's why CONSUMER REPORTS conducts an annual survey; our latest one gave us feedback on readers' experiences with more than 500,000 vehicles. Based on those results, we've compiled detailed reliability histories of 204 models covering model years 1994 through 2001 (page 76), along with lists of the most and least reliable used cars (page 74).

Because most new vehicles are essentially the same as last year's offerings, the comprehensive histories we've compiled allow us to predict the reliability of the 2002 models. The tables on these pages enable you to compare the current crop of vehicles.(Models that were redesigned for 2002 or early 2003 don't appear here because we don't know how they will rank among their peers.) You'll also find individual reliability predictions in the vehicle profiles that start on page 30.

Reliability is a major factor when we designate a model "recommended." Such models not only performed well in our tests but also have an average or above-average reliability rating.

Most vehicles today are more reliable than those made 10 or 20 years ago. The majority of models with above-average reliability are from Japanese manufacturers, although many of these Japanese "imports" are actually built in the U.S. Several European and American models now appear in the upper ranges, as well. In general, the reliability gap between domestic and imported vehicles has decreased dramatically.

Models with the highest predicted reliability ratings (based on data for the last three model years) come from Infiniti, Toyota, and Lexus. The models lowest-rated for predicted reliability include the Chevrolet Astro and GMC Safari twins, the Mercedes-Benz CLK, the two-wheel drive version of the Ford Explorer Sport Trac, and the Jeep Grand Cherokee.

 
Small cars 
 
                            % WORSE   AVERAGE   % BETTER 
 
Toyota Echo                                        68 
Chrysler PT Cruiser *                              46 
Mazda Protege                                      43 
Toyota Prius *                                     43 
Saturn S-Series                                    31 
Nissan Sentra                                      25 
Chevrolet Cavalier                       6 
Pontiac Sunfire                          6 
Volkswagen Golf (4-cyl.)                 6 
Honda Civic *                           13 
Volkswagen Jetta (4-cyl.)               19 
Dodge Neon *                  21 
Hyundai Elantra *             25 
Ford Focus                    72 
 
Sporty cars 
 
                        % WORSE   AVERAGE   % BETTER 
 
Toyota Celica                                  63 
Mitsubishi Eclipse 
Ford Mustang                        23 
Chevrolet Camaro          37 
Pontiac Firebird          37 
Volkswagen New Beetle     39 
Mercury Cougar            52 
 
Family cars 
 
                             % WORSE   AVERAGE   % BETTER 
 
Infiniti G20                                        78 
Honda Accord                                        53 
Nissan Maxima                                       51 
Mazda 626                                           41 
Subaru Legacy/Outback                               30 
Buick Century                                       29 
Volkswagen Passat (4-cyl.)                          21 
Chevrolet Impala                                   20.5 
Pontiac Grand Prix                                  19 
Buick Regal                                         16 
Chrysler Sebring (V6) *                             9 
Dodge Stratus (V6) *                                9 
Volkswagen Passat (V6) 
Ford Taurus                               8 
Mercury Sable                             8 
Dodge Intrepid                           18 
Volvo S40/V40                            19 
Oldsmobile Intrigue            23 
Mitsubishi Galant              27 
Chevrolet Malibu               27 
Pontiac Grand Am               32 
Saturn L-Series                35 
Oldsmobile Alero               38 
Hyundai Sonata *               43 
 
Upscale cars 
 
                          % WORSE   AVERAGE   % BETTER 
 
Infiniti I35 ...