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Speed Watch: Seasoned Loans Continue to Prepay at High Speeds.(Brief Article)
Seasoned issues were the stars of the prepayment show during the December reporting period for agency mortgage- backed securities.
Speeds increased significantly among seasoned issues for both conventional MBS and Ginnie Maes, while speeds of many new Ginnie Mae MBS issues declined, according to the Bear Stearns Prepayment Commentary. In the conventional sector, speeds rose across the board.
Constant prepayment rates of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae seasoned issues were up 14% on average, while CPRs for new issues averaged a 6% gain.
"The generally delayed but strong response of very seasoned cohorts is consistent with our expectations of seasoned loans when mortgage rates reach record lows as they did at the end of 2001," said Bear Stearns analysts Dale Westhoff and Bruce Kramer.
The analysts said they expected prepayment rates of new issues to decline faster than those of seasoned issues in "the coming slowdown."
One "large surprise" cited by the analysts was the 2001 vintage of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS, where speeds increased less than they expected.
"We attribute this to the recent massive issuance in this cohort that probably slowed today's number as newly refinanced mortgages were added to the total balance," they said.
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Source: HighBeam Research, Speed Watch: Seasoned Loans Continue to Prepay at High Speeds.(Brief...