Sizing up risks in a more dangerous world.(Home Front)

Calamity was not unknown in the U.S. before Sept. 11. Many communities have battled hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and chemical and nuclear accidents, even disease: The Hong Kong flu killed 34,000 people in 1968 and 1969.

No one can prepare for every adversity, of course. But if you think critically about plausible risks, you can take appropriate steps to be reasonably prepared for challenges ranging from severe weather to health and security threats.

The emergency-management experts and risk analysts with whom we spoke offered remarkably similar advice about the attitudes, behaviors, and supplies you need to cope with an emergency.

ADVICE FROM EXPERTS

In North Dakota, disaster preparedness is a way of life. Rural and sparsely populated, with a harsh climate prone to blinding blizzards, spring floods, and tornadoes, North Dakota is a place where the nearest doctor or neighbor may be 20 miles away. The state has been declared a major disaster area 11 times since 1993. Residents routinely prepare for winter storms by storing a three-day supply of food and water, medication, and an alternative source of heat in case of a power outage. Similar steps are advised for most types of disasters elsewhere.

Doug Friez, director of the state's Division of Emergency Management and coordinator of homeland security, is urging citizens to keep their eyes peeled for unusual or suspicious activity, especially near key facilities such as reservoirs, power plants, and schools, in a "Watch the Neighborhood" campaign. His office posts information on www.discovernd.com, its web site, about how to deal with suspicious mail and other threats.

Brian Humphrey, a spokesman for the Los Angeles Fire Department, which has a widely followed preparedness guide available online, says: "The government at the local, regional, state, and federal level is well prepared to swing into action. But personal preparedness for the first 72 hours of any emergency will prove paramount to personal and family survival. In any disaster, people who have taken time to prepare themselves and their families generally will manage quite well."