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Bruce Hoffman, "Al-Qaeda, Trends in Terrorism, and Future Potentialities: An Assessment;' RAND, June 2003 (rand.org)
Hoffman, the director of RAND's Washington office, believes al-Qaeda is alive and well--and that it might escalate its activities now that Iraq has provided a "target-rich environment" for strikes. "Al-Qaeda's inability to make good on any of their pre-invasion threats is a monumental setback," Hoffman concedes. But, from Tunisia to the Philippines, the group has continued its bloody business in the past year. Hoffman believes the destruction of its Afghan bases was largely inconsequential for al-Qaeda. The bases were important in the context of the Afghan civil war, but provide no use for the group's worldwide activities. Certainly the Afghan bases were irrelevant in carrying out the 9/11 attacks, he notes.
Meanwhile, while almost half of its top officers have been wiped out, the group's "vital core leadership" remains at large--including bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri, often cited as the "brains" behind his ...
Source: HighBeam Research, Hold the obituaries.(National Security)