Numbers don't make the man.(Baseball)

Any Red Sox manager trying to win the franchise's first World Series since 1918 must have extreme confidence and very thick skin. Under John Henry's ownership, the job soon might include a third requirement: a willingness to obey numbers.

Grady Little's problem is not that he stuck too long with Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, but that he based his decision on subjective judgment rather than objective data. Henry, the first owner to embrace sabermetric analysis, doesn't want to hear that Little went with his instincts, not when opponents batted .231 off Martinez from pitches 91 to 105 in the regular season and .364 after his 105th pitch.

In his perfect world, Henry probably would like to replace Little with a mathematics Ph.D from MIT or, better yet, a robot. But in the real world, no manager relies solely on statistics. Henry, general manager Theo Epstein and the rest of the Red Sox's new-age management team would be lucky to find one who even was willing to test their theories.

Little actually did, following management's plan to implement a Bill James-influenced bullpen-by-committee early in the season. The plan didn't work, and the team's stars again proved nearly impossible to manage, yet Little led the Red Sox to 95 wins and Game 7 of the ALCS--not that most Boston fans will remember or care.

OK, Little should have trusted his relievers in Game 7, especially after they allowed only three earned runs in 28 2/3 postseason innings. But just for argument's sake, what if Little sensed that Mike Timlin and Co. would shrink from the moment? The manager had stayed with Martinez after visiting him on the mound in Games 1 and 5 of the Division Series. And in the first game, Martinez wound up throwing 130 pitches.

Game 7 was no different than any other; a dozen things could have happened to influence its outcome. Little's tactical flaws cannot be dismissed, but he fulfilled a manager's most important task: getting 25 ego-driven personalities to play hard every day. That is Dusty Baker's greatest skill. Ditto for Tony Pena. Even Bobby Cox and Joe Torre are far better at communicating with players than executing in-game strategy.

So, who's the right manager for the Red Sox? Lou Piniella is perhaps the best fit; he would be secure enough to ignore the manic Red Sox Nation when it hyperventilates over some sixth-inning pitching change. Torre would bring even greater stature, and he also is adept at deflecting attention from his players. The old, pre-L.A. Davey Johnson--a math major in college--would be perfect. Jim Fregosi might have enough movie to succeed.