Many teams still can make a run.(NFL)

I've always thought football teams start to define themselves about the time the weather gets cold and leaves start falling. We had an Indian summer throughout the country, and that's appropriate because it's taking a bit longer than usual to get a handle on this season.

A few things appear certain. Pencil in Kansas City and Minnesota for the playoffs. And write off Detroit, Chicago, Jacksonville, San Diego, Atlanta and Arizona. They're toast. But that leaves a lot of teams with a realistic shot at making playoff runs, even if their records might indicate otherwise.

Records can be so misleading at this point. Consider the AFC East. The top three teams in that division have a .500 record or better, but I won't be surprised if the Jets go on a nice run. Their defense has been impressive, and the return of Chad Pennington will provide a huge boost to the offense. The Patriots, Dolphins and Bills all have flaws that become more evident each week, after another game film is produced. It's too early to count out the Jets.

OR the Giants. They're 3-4, but if not for two special teams gaffes, they would be 5-2. with their talent, they could get back in this race in a hurry, even if Dallas appears to be running away with it. Jim Fassel has won before when fans were calling for his head. Don't bet against him.

In Cincinnati, Jon Kitna is playing very well. Even with the Corey Dillon distractions, the Bengals are only a game back in the weak AFC North. Houston won't win the AFC South, but with the emergence of running back Domanick Davis, it could finish near .500.

Virtually every division is a tossup. Carolina leads the NFC South, but New Orleans will be a very good team before the end of the year. Tampa Bay already is, although it's at a crossroads now. That's a three-team race. That appeared to be the case in the NFC West, where St. Louis has caught Seattle for the division lead, until San Francisco lost to Arizona. Ouch. And Denver and Green Bay, the teams trailing Kansas City and Minnesota, respectively, are well within the wild-card picture.

Not all these teams will make a playoff run. All I'm saying is that until there's frost on the pumpkin, it's too early to tell.