Is Boom on Last Legs?(mortgage rates)

The average mortgage rate remained below 6.5% in early September, still plenty attractive for most borrowers.

But not for people who refinanced or bought a house during most of the past 12 months. In fact, rates remained above 6% for seven consecutive weeks as of mid-September. During the first six months of the year, rates remained below 6%.

And that's slowly putting a damper on refinancing.

In the last week of August, the MBA's refinancing index fell 9% to 1,981. The reading was more than 50% below last year's pace on a four-week rolling average basis, but remains 1.7 times the historical average for refinancing activity, noted analyst Michael Vinciquerra of Raymond James & Associates, St. Petersburg, Fla.

Refinancing activity, measured as a percentage of loan applications, fell below 50% in late August for the first time in almost 15 months.

And even with rates dipping a bit in early September, many economists say that most of the refi boom is probably history.

Freddie Mac predicts that refinancing will still account for 54% of home loans in the third quarter, but then dip to 37% in the fourth. And some of the third-quarter refinancing reflects loan applications that spilled over into July ...