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Market insight: US bottoming out? (Insight).(gas prices, United States)

World Gas Intelligence

| August 06, 2003 | COPYRIGHT 2008 Energy Intelligence Group. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

Many US gas market watchers believe the bottom is near following an eight-week slide in North American gas prices, although cool weather is keeping bulls on the sidelines and damping hope for a late summer rally.

After peaking at $6.50 per million Btu in early June, just as US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan was warning of a brewing market crisis, North American gas prices have fallen nearly $2 on mild weather and widespread loss of demand from fuel switching and plant shutdowns. The August Henry Hub contract at the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) went off the board last Tuesday at $4.693/MMBtu, nearly 60 cents below the July contract close.

But lower prices have paved the way for a recovery in industrial and utility demand. August bid-week trading in the $4.50-$4.70/MMBtu range across the Gulf Coast and around $5.10 in the Northeast is the cheapest baseload pricing available for end users since December 2002.

Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) support the view that fuel-switching should be winding down as a factor loosening the gas market balance. US …

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