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Statscape. (Baseball).
What in the name of Bernie Brewer happened to Glendon Rusch? The Milwaukee lefthander has gone from dependably average (a 4.45 ERA from 2000-02) to atrocious (1-12, 7.50 ERA) this season.
Evaluating Rusch and other disappointing pitchers requires us to consider a subtle question: How much do pitchers control opponents' batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and how much is determined by their defense and luck?
Rusch's walk rate is a touch higher than in 2002, but his strikeout and home run rates have improved slightly. The kicker is his .398 BABIP, up from .297 last year (close to the 2002 N.L. average of .288). Has he lost his ability to prevent hits without losing his other skills? Not likely.
Voros McCracken, who analyzes stats for the Red Sox, argues that almost all the year-to-year variations in BABIP are due to defense and luck; great plays and balls hit right at fielders one year become gappers the next, or vice versa. Pitchers with the best BABIPs one year, he found, sometimes are among the worst the next, and you can predict a pitcher's future BABIP better with a teamwide average than with the pitcher's own previous ...