Simon Tisdall: Britain's secret overture to Damascus is unlikely to be music to Washington's ears.

(From Guardian Unlimited)

It seems an odd time to go knocking on Bashar al-Assad's front door - or in the case of Sir Nigel Sheinwald, Tony Blair's secret envoy to Damascus, slipping in round the back for a quiet chat. Only a year ago, the conventional wisdom in Washington and European capitals was that the Syrian president was on the skids. Now it seems he is calling the shots.

Mr Assad's humiliating troop withdrawal from Lebanon, beefed-up US sanctions, supposed dissent within his regime, and the UN's inquiry into Syrian involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri were all key elements in Mr Assad's anticipated downfall.

And when Ghazi Kanaan, Syria's interior minister and former intelligence chief in Lebanon, died in mysterious circumstances in October last year, it did indeed seem that Mr Assad was losing his grip. Mr Kanaan supposedly committed suicide by shooting himself in the mouth. Marketplace rumours darkly suggested he was bumped off for secretly collaborating with the UN inquiry, the US, or both.

But like his famously resilient father Hafez, the so-called Lion of Damascus, Mr Assad rode the storm and events began to turn in his favour. The promise of Lebanon's much-hyped "cedar revolution" was lost in renewed political infighting. Hamas, the militant faction backed by Damascus, won power in Palestinian elections. The threat posed by the Hariri inquiry gradually faded.

Spiralling sectarian and insurgent violence in Iraq, close ally Iran's ever more confident rejection of western pressure, and finally, Hizbullah's self-proclaimed summer "victory" over Israeli forces in Lebanon have all served to fortify Mr Assad politically while affording him new tactical options.

So when Sir Nigel unexpectedly turned up on the doorstep on Monday, the UK envoy was hardly in a position to set the agenda, let alone dictate terms. Britain, in its now familiar ...