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Moody's: municipal credit quality deteriorating. (News & Numbers).(Moody's Investors Service)

Government Finance Review

| June 01, 2003 | COPYRIGHT 2003 Government Finance Officers Association. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

According to a recent report by Moody's Investors Service, municipal bond market downgrades are approaching parity with upgrades for the first time in a decade. During the first quarter of 2003, there were 90 ratings upgrades and 84 ratings downgrades for a ratio of only 1.1 to 1. The dollar value of the downgrades outweighed the upgrades by a ratio of 2.4 to 1.

Until the first quarter of this year, upgrades had outnumbered downgrades by a significant margin for 10 years. Now the downgrades may actually surpass the upgrades. "Given the weak first quarter results, this ratio could reverse this year, especially if geopolitical uncertainty persists and economic recovery continues to stall," the report said.

As expected, the financial stress experienced at the state level is now trickling down to the local level. Diluted tax revenues and reduced investment income have led to growing fiscal deficits and pension shortfalls for state governments. To balance their budgets, many states have reduced local aid levels, leaving many local governments contemplating ...

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