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When you're losing half a billion dollars a year, as Major League Baseball claims it is, you probably are making some big mistakes. Like throwing millions at "prospects" who never will make the big leagues, much less become stars.
Sabermetrician Kerry Leiberman has evaluated all first-round draft picks from 1965 to 1994 (more recent draftees may yet break through). If a No. 1 pick who becomes a regular or a star is considered a "hit," the scouts are batting .284--but only .207 on high school pitchers.
And the average drops fast. Baseball America's Jim Callis evaluated the 1990-97 drafts and found that only 9.4 percent of second-round picks became regulars (a .094 average), end just 6.2 percent of third-round picks.
Clubs would argue that these numbers show just how hard it is to project a 19- or 21-year-old's development. True enough. But if young players are such a crapshoot, ...