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This column usually handicaps the ongoing struggle for political control in the United States between Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives. The short story is that the center-right coalition created by Ronald Reagan is winning and, barring unforeseen errors, will continue to build its strength.
But struggles for control also take place on a global scale. Since the collapse of the Soviet empire in the late 1980s, three possible rivals have emerged: China, the Islamic World, and the European Union. Of these, only Europe can serve as a true rival; the only force that can muster a fifth column within the borders of the United States.
China has a large population and a growing economy. Its Communist Party, which now includes capitalist business owners, wants to retain its monopoly on political power while largely giving markets free reign. China has vast ambitions, but its neighbors are India, Russia, and Japan. India and Russia have nuclear weapons, while Japan, which could easily build them, has an economy far larger than China's. Each country hates or fears China more than it does the U.S., and China has no exportable culture or political philosophy. The Soviet Union had Communist parties in every nation. Chinese-controlled political parties are not a factor in any important nation outside of China. It poses no real threat to the United States and will never become a true superpower.
Forces from the Muslim world have engineered one massive terrorist attack on the American homeland, and over the past 18 months the U.S. has fought two wars against them. Some view the entire Muslim world as a place where America might wage a 30- or 100-year "clash of civilizations" While there are a billion-plus Muslims in the world, no Muslim nation or coalition of nations could ever pose a military or economic threat to the United States. The radical corruption of Islam that motivates al-Qaeda has little support throughout the Muslim world. After all, few Muslims demonstrated when the U.S. moved against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Sporadic acts of terrorism may take place, but radical Islam does not threaten the existence of the American government.
It is Europe that represents the most likely challenge to American cultural, military, and economic dominance. Europeans, not Chinese or Muslims, ...