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You were expecting burnout this year? Thought the percentage of home loans originated to people refinancing an existing loan would finally start to fall? Once again, you might be jumping the gun if you thought the value of mortgage servicing portfolios was poised to rise early in 2003.
The industry's leading economists expect refinancing to account for almost 60% of loan originations this year, about the same as last year. That means a substantial portion of your portfolio is going to turnover, just like last year and the year before. And that continues to put a damper on the market for MSR portfolios.
With few trades actually reaching the market (Hamilton, Carter Smith & Co., Beverly Hills, Calif., was testing the market on current coupon deals as this issue of MSN went to press), lenders are looking for other ways to gauge the value of their portfolios.
Mortgage Industry Advisory Co., New York, has created an index of "Generic Servicing Asset" values to do just that. MIAC's index found that MSR values once again hit an all-time low in March as a result of low interest rates and prepayment pressure. Not a surprise, given that dealer consensus prepayment speeds were setting all-time highs for almost all asset classes.
According to MIAC's index, MSR values on most conventional loan portfolios for both 15-year and 30-year products fell below two times the servicing fee. The value of the MSRs on 30-year agency loans in March was a mere 1.7 times the servicing fee, according to MIAC.
Long gone are the days when MSR portfolios traded at multiples of nearly seven times the servicing fee.
The good news is that things improved a bit in April. The MIAC index showed that MSR prices rebounded a bit from their March lows despite ...