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Have Prime Delinquencies Passed Peak?
It now appears that residential delinquencies peaked in the middle of last year among 'prime' mortgage loans, but the number of loans in foreclosure remained at a record level as 2002 came to a close.
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America reported last week that 4.53% of home loans were at least 30 days late at the end of 2002, a decline of 13 basis points from the third quarter and also a 14 basis point decline from the end of 2001.
Moreover, it now appears that delinquencies peaked in the second quarter at 4.77% following the recession, according to the MBA. That discounts a slightly higher rate in the third quarter of 2001, when terrorism and anthrax-related mail delays may have skewed the numbers.
If the second-quarter figure holds up as the peak delinquency rate for this cycle, it means delinquencies have peaked slightly lower than they did after the 1990-91 recession, according to the MBA.
Not so for the foreclosure rate, which remains at a record level.
The percentage of conventional home loans that are in the foreclosure process edged up to 1.18%, a three basis point rise from the previous record of 1.15% set in the third quarter.
"It is our view that foreclosures may be peaking at this time," said Douglas Duncan, the MBA's chief economist. He added that it is logical for the foreclosure rate to peak about two quarters after the overall delinquency rate has peaked.
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