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Refinancing May Hit 60% Mark This Year.
The chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America weighed in with his forecast of the originations market for this year, bringing his estimate up to $2.6 trillion.
Douglas Duncan, speaking at the group's National Secondary Market Conference here, noted there is a wide divergence among predictors of where the market will be.
He expects the refinancing share of all lending activity this year to slightly exceed last year's record.
On the high side, David Berson, chief economist of Fannie Mae, is calling for a $3.2 trillion year. His counterpart at Freddie Mac, Frank Nothaft, just issued a report predicting a $2.54 trillion year. U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray analyst Robert Napoli's most recent estimate is $2.25 trillion.
Mr. Duncan did project a scenario where his forecast could be low. He sees interest rates remaining flat for the rest of this year. If the president's economic stimulus package does not go through, then he said his projection is low and "I'll be wrong for the right reasons."
On the other hand, if the whole stimulus package is approved (the current forecast takes into account about half of the package going into effect, as well as the $75 billion proposed funding for military action in Iraq), then he is "overestimating" this year's volume.
From the macroeconomic perspective, if the stimulus package is approved, it could have an effect on the mortgage market as corporations increase their demand for credit. This demand will drive up mortgage interest rates.
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Source: HighBeam Research, Refinancing May Hit 60% Mark This Year.