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Prepayment rates on the collateral in agency mortgage-backed securities rose nearly 8% across the coupon stack in August, but the speedup was probably just an artifact of a longer reporting period, according to Bear Stearns.
The August reporting period had three more business days than the July period, said Dale Westhoff and V.S. Srinivasan, senior managing directors at Bear Stearns.
Pointing to a forthcoming three-day decline in the number of business days in the September reporting period, the Bear Stearns analysts predicted that speeds would fall 10% next month, despite a recent 20-basis-point drop in mortgage rates.
Overall speeds on Fannie Mae 30-year MBS collateral increased from a constant prepayment rate of 10.7 CPR in July to 11.5 CPR in August, and the comparable Freddie Mac speeds rose from 9.7 CPR to 10.5 CPR, they reported.
For 30-year Ginnie Mae collateral, aggregate speeds rose 9%, from 14.5 CPR to 15.8 CPR.
The analysts noted that Ginnie Mae speeds remained "significantly faster" than those of conventionals for most cohorts originated before 2005. But they said structural changes in the Federal Housing Administration program, combined with the state of the housing market, are likely to keep speeds on this year's Ginnie Maes slower that those of comparable Fannies and Freddies.
Meanwhile, prepayments in the agency hybrid sector rose about 9% in August, but even with this increase, discount speeds (adjusted for relative coupon and seasoning) are still slower than last year's, they reported.
Source: HighBeam Research, Long Month Boosts Prepayment Rates: Leverage will be the key to a...