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Critics are saying that President Bush's tax cut proposal is misguided. It will lead, they say, to bigger deficits--which in turn will raise interest rates.
But the economic record is clear: Larger budget deficits do not, by themselves, raise interest rates. Perhaps the closest analogy to where we stand now is 1981. The Reagan administration had passed big tax cuts equal to nearly 2 percent of GDP, while simultaneously increasing military outlays, and over the next five years the federal budget deficit rose from 2.5 percent of GDP to 5.3 percent. Yet long-term interest rates tumbled during that same period--from nearly 14 percent to 7 percent.
The truth is, tax cuts that bring deficit increases equal to 1 or 2 percent of GDP have no discernible impact on interest rates, because U.S. bond markets are huge. The sum of ...