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(From Journal of Japanese Trade & Industry (JJTI))
An increasing number of senior officials in the government, ruling coalition and business community are beginning to call for consumption tax hikes in the future. Behind this is the growing perception that a rise in the consumption tax, now at 5%, may be unavoidable to ensure sufficient sources of revenues to deal with the pension reforms slated in 2004 and to cover ballooning social security costs due to the aging of the Japanese population and the declining birth rate.
Japan is facing a severe fiscal situation as the government's tax revenues remain sluggish due to the prolonged economic slump, while expenditures are growing due to increased pension and medical costs. With the outstanding government bond issues estimated to reach \450 trillion by the end of March 2004, the government may find it increasingly difficult to resort to any further borrowing. In addition, the government's burden of the financial sources for basic pension payments is expected to increase to one-half of the total cost from the current one-third under the 2004 pension reform plan. Thus, hopes for the consumption tax to become a stable source of revenues are growing.
In the business community, the Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren) took the initiative in launching a campaign for consumption tax hikes. In late November last year, Nippon Keidanren Chairman Okuda Hiroshi proposed that the consumption tax rate be raised to 16% along with pension system reforms by fiscal 2014. The business world is generally in favor of a consumption tax hike because they want to win a corporate tax cut in exchange. "Unless Japan's corporations become stronger, neither people's lives nor the Japanese economy will improve," Okuda stressed.
In contrast to such a positive attitude by the business community, government ministries and agencies remain cautious. Immediately after a cabinet reshuffle in late September, ...