Do We Have Two More Great Years Ahead of Us?

On most days it feels like this two-year old purchase/refi boom will never end - especially with the equities market sucking wind and military action in Iraq imminent.

Yes, as equities go south, bonds rally and interest rates - mortgage rates especially - stay low. Just how good are things right now? According to our affiliate, National Mortgage News, lenders wrote almost $1 trillion in new loans in the fourth quarter alone. Yes, that's right, almost $1 trillion in just one quarter.

The number seems unfathomable. The real number is $941 billion, but if you round up, it comes out as $1 trillion. The optimist in me says, trumpet the $1 trillion number. Wow - $1 trillion. In the old days, most lenders would kill for a $1 trillion year.

Times change though, and as most readers already know: housing/ mortgages is the only game in the economy right now. (I think the Bush White House knows this, too.) Computers and technology? Going nowhere fast, scraping along the bottom. Telecom? Don't go there, please. Drugs and pharmaceuticals? Not much life there either. Autos? Maybe some action.

Yes, it's a mortgage/housing kind of world. And it's been that way for the past two years. How many more good years do we have ahead of us? As most industry veterans know, booms in this industry are followed by busts, usually bad busts. I've been there, you've been there. Down years are not fun for anyone, accept for servicers.

So what about 2003? Actually it looks good, maybe a $2 trillion year. And 2004? It might not be so bad after all. In other words, perhaps, the mortgage industry is no longer the cyclical beast it once was. Then again, if you believe that, chances are a Mack Truck is waiting for you around the corner.

But, seriously, I actually feel somewhat optimistic about the next two years. Here's why: the stock market is absolutely atrocious. I get the feeling that most Americans have totally lost ...