A glance: worldwide credit conditions.

 
A Glabce: Worldwide Credit Conditions 
 
Fay Hansen 
 
ECONOMIC GROWTH 
 
GDP % change from previous quarter 
 
         Q3 01  Q4 01  Q1 02  Q2 02 
 
U.S.      -0.1    0.7    1.2    0.3 
Canada    -0.2    0.6    1.4      - 
Mexico    -0.5   -0.3      0    1.6 
EU 15      0.2   -0.2    0.4    0.4 
Germany   -0.2   -0.3    0.3    0.3 
UK         0.3    0.2    0.1    0.6 
France     0.5   -0.5    0.6    0.4 
 
Source: Eurostat (www.europa.eu.int); Instituto Nacional 
(www.inegi.gob.mx). 
 
U.S. BANKRUPTCY RATES 
 
Number of bankruptcy petitions filed in federal courts and % change from 
previous quarter 
 
 
Q1 01  312,335  (14.3%) 
Q2 01  400,394  (28.2%) 
Q3 01  359,518  (-10.2%) 
Q4 01  366,841  (2.0%) 
Q1 01  379,012  (3.3%) 
Q2 02  400,686  (5.7%) 
 
Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (www.uscourts.gov). 

[GRAPH OMITTED]

 
U.S. Business Bankruptices Year Ending June 
 
 
1998  50,202 
1999  39,934 
2000  36,910 
2001  37,135 
2002  39,201 
 
Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (www.uscourts.gov). 

[GRAPH OMITTED]

 
U.S. INFLATION 
 
U.S. consumer price index - urban % change 
 
Mar.                          Apr.  May  June  July  Aug.  Sep. 
 
.3                            .5    .0   .1    .1    .3    .2 
 
Produce price index % change 
-2                            -.4   -.2  .2    -.2   0     .1 
 
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov). 
 
Asia: Consumer Prices 
 
           2001  2002  2003 * 
 
China       0.7  -0.4   1.5 
India       3.8   4.5   5.1 
Indonesia  11.5  11.9   8.7 
Malaysia    1.4   1.8   2.5 
Hong Kong   1.6  -3.0  -0.5 
Korea       4.1   2.7   3.3 
Taiwan        0   0.4   1.6 
 
Source: IMF (www.imf.org). 
 
* Forecast. 
 
U.S. INTEREST RATES 
 
               Q2 02  Q3 02  Q4 02 *  Q1 03 * 
 
Federal Funds  1.75   1.75   1.75     1.75 
3 mo. T bill   1.72   1.64   1.55     1.58 
6 mo. T bill   1.87   1.63   1.54     1.60 
1 yr. T bill   2.34   1.81   1.62     1.81 
2 yr. T note   3.22   2.23   1.98     2.36 
l0 yr.T note   5.10   4.26   3.81     4.13 
 
Source: Federal Reserve (www.frb.gov). 
 
* Forecast by National City Corp. (www.nationalcity.com). 
 
INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES 
 
Short-term rates 
 
(3-mo. interbank rates or 3-mo.CDs or T bills) 
 
                             6/02  7/02  8/02  9/02  10/02 
 
U.S.                         1.81  1.79  1.73  1.76  1.73 
Canada                       2.76  2.85  2.93  2.90 
Mexico                       7.49  7.88  7.07  7.82  8.23 
Japan                        0.03  0.04  0.03  0.03  0.03 
Euro zone                    3.46  3.41  3.35  3.31  3.26 
UK                           4.11  3.99  3.92  3.93 
 
Long-term rates 
(secondary market yields on 
 long-term bonds) 
 
U.S.                         5.58  5.32  4.97  4.63  4.93 
Canada                       5.37  5.23  5.14  4.92 
Japan                        1.33  1.30  1.25  1.13 
Euro zone                    5.16  5.03  4.73  4.52 
UK                           5.12  5.01  4.71  4.46 
 
Source: OECD (www.oecd.org). 
 
U.S. TRADE 
 
% change      August 02  YTD compared 
 
                         w/same period 2001 
Exports       -1.3%      -6.8% 
 Merchandise  -1.9%      -8.4% 
 Services     -0.3%      -2.6% 
Imports       2.0%       -1.9% 
 Merchandise  2.2%       -1.9% 
 Services     1.1%       2.8% 
 
Source: International Trade Administration (www.ita.doc.gov). 

U.S./Canada. Year-to-date exports totaled $106.7 billion, down 5.2% from a year ago. Imports were $139.4 billion, down 6.9%.

U.S./Mexico. Year-to-date exports totaled $63.9 billion, down 7% from a year ago. Imports were $89.0 billion, up 0.5%.