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Successful forecasts of the baseball draft are met with longer odds than Jessica Simpson on Jeopardy. Since the maiden free-agent draft in 1965 ("hey--they're drafting maidens?!"), every scouting director and general manager emerges "cautiously optimistic" having just panned for gold in a dark cave--some of them apparently having done so while wearing oven mitts.
In that first-ever draft of '65, the Mets, choosing second, grabbed the immortal Les Rohr, passing on, oh, let's see ... Johnny Bench and Graig Nettles, among others. The top six picks in the 1975 draft read not like a baseball Who's Who, but a baseball Who's That?: Danny Goodwin, Mike Lentz, Les Filkins, Brian Rosinski, Rich O'Keefe and Butch Benton. A hindsight suggestion on who should have been the top six: Andre Dawson, Lee Smith, Dave Stewart, Lou Whitaker, Carney Lansford and Keith Moreland.
In 1979, who'd have thought the draft's two best players would have been taken in Rounds 17 (Orel Hershiser) and 19 (Don Mattingly)? Or that in 1983, 18 teams would pass on Roger Clemens, letting him slide to the Red Sox? The two teams from the Lone Star state decided that Jeff Kunkel (Rangers) and Robbie Wine (Astros) filled more immediate needs. Clemens actually was the 11th pitcher selected in that draft; Tim Belcher went first but didn't sign with the team that selected him, the Twins.
Other high rollers who didn't sign with the team that first selected them: Mark McGwire, drafted by the Expos out of high school, and Carlton Fisk, chosen by the Orioles. The ...