Strategic issues that confront a rising Asia.

(From The Korea Herald)

By Lee Hsien Loong The Straits Times (Singapore) Asia News Network Asia's economic growth rests on the stability of the strategic environment in the region. Constructive and stable relations among the major powers set limits on rivalries and conflicts in the region, and enable trade and investments to flourish.

Three issues could disrupt Asia's strategic stability. They are the India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir, the North Korean issue and Taiwan. All three have a potential nuclear dimension.

Like Kashmir, it is difficult to see a definitive solution to the North Korean problem. The six-party talks have reduced the risk of accidental war. The key actors are rational and, despite their differences, share a common interest in a peaceful resolution of the issue.

Kim Jong-il is a master of brinkmanship. But he too is rational and must know that war will lead to the outcome that he fears most, the disappearance of North Korea as a sovereign state. Therefore, while he may go to the very edge, unlike Saddam Hussein, Kim will not deliberately step over it. The North Korean issue is a strong incentive for the United States and China to cooperate for their common interest.

The risks of miscalculation are perhaps highest over Taiwan. The issue is extremely delicate because it engages the domestic politics of China, United States and Taiwan. The U.S. stand, and perceptions of the U.S. stand in China and Taiwan, are key to the problem. President George W. Bush has said publicly that he does not support Taiwan's independence. But the United States may still be drawn into a cross-strait conflict. It is encouraging that President Chen Shui-bian's inauguration speech took a more conciliatory tone, suggesting he is aware of the grave dangers, although he still left open the possibility of independence.

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