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Menstrual diaries may predict onset of menopause. (Cycle Variability is Key).
BERLIN -- A formula for predicting menopause in individual women has been devised by Australian researchers who studied 8 years' worth of menstrual diaries and hormone data for more than 400 perimenopausal women.
Several factors appear to be important as a woman's final menstrual period approaches, said John Taffe, Ph.D., principal investigator of the study presented at the 10th World Congress on the Menopause.
Cycle lengths tend to become more variable beginning in about a woman's mid-40s, after having been more regular than at any time during her life, he said at the congress, which was sponsored by the International Menopause Society.
A key point seems to be when the "running range" of that variability-the difference between her shortest and longest cycles in a sequence-reaches at least 43 days, signifying that the menopausal transition has begun. (To calculate running range, see accompanying box.)
From that time, a woman is unlikely to have more than 20 more menstrual cycles.
Menopause will occur in 1-2 years, said Dr. Taffe, who represents the Office of Gender and Health at the University of Melbourne (Australia) and the School of Mathematical Sciences at Swinburne University in Hawthorn, Australia.
Factors found to influence the time from a running range exceeding 42 days and the final menstrual period included:
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Source: HighBeam Research, Menstrual diaries may predict onset of menopause. (Cycle Variability...