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As Yogi Berra once said, "It feels like deja vu all over again."According to the script, 2004 was supposed to be the year that interest rates started to gradually rise. Servicing values would stabilize and even start to increase. A market for trading of bulk portfolios of mortgage servicing rights seemed poised to resurface.
That was then. Now that the books are closed on the first quarter of the year, the industry is once again bracing itself for a wave of impairment charges against MSR values. Falling interest rates have rekindled refinancing activity. Loans are running off the book as quickly as last summer. That portfolio churning, and the expectation that borrowers who took out new loans just a few months ago may be on the cusp of refinancing, has driven down MSR values.
Moreover, as analysts at Sandler O'Neill recently pointed out, the timing of the recent rate dip, which seems to have reached its nadir in late March, was not good for mortgage servicers that rely on loan production gains to offset servicing writedowns. In many cases, they will have to report impairment to their portfolios for the first quarter, but gains from a surge of lending activity in March won't ...