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COPYRIGHT 2004 Society for the Advancement of Education
AFTER A REMARKABLE EXPANSION of grain output from 90,000,000 tons in 1950 to 392,000,000 tons in 1998, China's grain harvest has fallen in four of the last five years, skidding to 322,000,000 tons in 2003. This drop exceeds the total grain harvest of Canada. Production of each of the three grains that dominate China's agriculture--wheat, rice, and corn--has plummeted, but wheat, grown mostly in the water-short north, has dipped the most. With wheat stocks diminishing and domestic prices climbing, Chinese wheat buying delegations have visited several grain-exporting countries. Recent purchases of some 5,000,000 tons in Australia, Canada, and the U.S. have set world wheat prices on an upward trend.
Yet, these price rises may be only the early tremors before the real quake. China's harvest shortfalls of recent years have been covered by drawing down its once massive stocks of grain, but these soon will be gone, forcing it to cover the entire shortfall...
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