Gambling with visas.(the Immigration Economist)

Uncle Sam is running a lottery--a visa lottery, that is.

Because of the overwhelming role family connections play in current immigration law, most U.S. newcomers stem from a handful of countries, primarily Latin American and Asian. In 1986, Congress used this lack of immigrant diversity as an excuse to institute an affirmative action program for white immigrants--a "diversity lottery." Devised by its sponsors (Irish-American congressmen) as a subterfuge to grant amnesty to Irish illegal aliens, the program continues even in the absence of Irish immigration.

In 2002, only 58 Irish ended up actually getting green cards via the lottery. Nonetheless, the lottery, like the mohair subsidy, has taken on a life of its own. It has evolved over time to offer a maximum of 50,000 visas per year to people from "underrepresented" countries, i.e., nations other than the top dozen sources of immigration. In practice, this means that most visa lottery winners come from the Islamic world and sub-Saharan Africa.

Unlike other components of the federal immigration program, the lottery has no constituency: no residents clamoring for the admission of relatives, no businesses seeking cheap foreign labor, no human rights crusaders demanding open borders. Still, when Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-VA), a former immigration lawyer, introduced a bill early last year to eliminate the visa lottery, it went nowhere. Supporters of mass immigration don't want to give an inch on any program, lest it upset the status quo.

There are, however, good reasons to shut down the diversity lottery. Here are a few:

* Despite the moniker, it has done nothing to diversity our immigrant flow. More than half of all our legal arrivals in 2002 came from just ten countries (almost exactly the same as a decade ago), and only one of these countries, Bosnia-Herzegovina, is European. In fact, the nation's total immigrant population (legal and illegal) has actually become less diverse during the course of the lottery. A recent analysis of census data by the Center for Immigration Studies found that from 1990 to 2000, Mexicans grew from 22 percent of all immigrants to 30 percent, while arrivals from all of Spanish-speaking Latin America increased from 37 to 46 percent. Truly diversifying immigration would require large reductions in immigration from Mexico and adjoining countries. The lottery simply cannot do what it purports to.

* If the lottery took the 50,000 most qualified people among the millions who apply, it might make sense. But the program's requirements are so low they do nothing to ensure that applicants have the skills needed in our modern economy, and final selections are based on luck rather than merit.