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NEW YORK -- The share of commercial mortgage debt in U.S. gross domestic product reached 15.8% in the fourth quarter of 2005, the highest level since the record of 15% set in 1988 at the peak of the last real estate cycle, Moody's Investors Service reports.
This, along with annual property appreciation of 12% for last year, which Moody's says is the largest increase since 1978, leads the credit rating agency to believe that commercial real estate finance is "entering uncharted waters."
Another indicator that is of concern to Moody's is that the loan-to-value ratio on commercial mortgage-backed securities conduit loans has reached 103.8% in the first quarter of 2006.
This is the highest level of record and Moody's views it as a sign of increased balloon refinance risk.
As well, the share of conduit loans that is partially or fully interest-only reached a "new high" of 70%, which is nearly triple the level of two years ago, "further contributing to increased balloon risk," according to Tad Philipp, Moody's managing director for CMBS and author of the report.
Further, in the first quarter as ...