KDI may upgrade economic growth forecast.

(From The Korea Herald)

By Rafael Nam The nation's leading economy think tank may upgrade its 5.3 percent growth forecast for Korea, citing strong exports and a recovery for domestic consumption, said its head on Saturday.

Kim Chung-soo, president of the Korea Development Institute, told reporters that the 2004 economic growth forecast will likely be revised upward when the think tank reports its official prediction in mid-April. Kim was attending a government organized conference marking President Roh Moo-hyun's first year in office.

Government officials have been increasingly voicing optimism about this year's growth and have widely forecast the economy will grow at around 5 percent this year, compared to the estimated 3 percent last year when a slump in consumer spending and corporate investment led to a recession during the first half of the year.

Recent economic figures indicate that the economy indeed appears to have turned a corner, with exports in 2003 growing at their fastest clip in four years, while unemployment has fallen to a nine-month low, consumer confidence has risen to a 16-month high and industrial output has grown for the eighth consecutive month.

The head of KDI, which operates under the Ministry of Finance and Economy and whose economic studies are seen as having a wide impact on the government's policymaking, acknowledged Saturday that exports have been robust and it further expects that consumer spending should begin a long-awaited recovery.

"I think weak consumer spending has bottomed out and should improve," Kim said.