Cornered rats fight hard.(Politico)

There are many good reasons to expect President George W. Bush to win re-election on November 2, 2004. And there is one good reason to believe a Democrat, any Democrat, will defeat him.

The list of Bush strengths begins with the economy, up an impressive 8 percent in the third quarter of 2003. Growth is expected to run 4-5 percent for the next 12 months. And unlike in 1992 when the economy was actually growing on Election Day, now the economy is growing early enough that the entire campaign will be run with a public that knows Bush's economic policies are working. The capture of Saddam Hussein and the decision by Libya to surrender its weapons of mass destruction undermine the effort by Democrats to claim Iraq had nothing to do with the war on terror. No serious primary opponent. No serious scandal. Low inflation. Employment growing. Presidential approval ratings are strong: 63 percent in December 2003, as compared with 51 percent for Clinton and 54 percent for Reagan 11 months before their re-elections. Should be a slam dunk.

The one big reason to bet against Bush is that the Republican coalition and the Democratic coalition face very different incentives this year. The marvels of modern gerrymandering and the five Senate seats in the South being vacated by Democrats ensure that, whatever hap-pens to Bush, the Republicans will control the House and Senate on November 3, 2004. So if Bush loses, taxes will not be raised. Dean cannot enact any new spending program or law that doesn't first run the gauntlet of Tom DeLay and Bill Frist. There will be no new gun control laws. No part of the center-right coalition will be crushed.

There is no part of the Republican coalition that lives off the state or its power. This is a tautology, as the Democrats have held united control of the government from 1932 to 1952, 1960-68, 1976-80 and 1992-94. If there was a part of the GOP dependent on state power, it was asphyxiated or co-opted long ago.

Four more years of Bush and a Republican Congress will likely bring modest tort reform that will potentially cost trial lawyers billions of dollars of lost income.

Private sector unions now extract union dues from only ...