Indonesia's 2004 elections: Predicting is harder than ever.

(From The Jakarta Post)

Megawati, the incumbent president, has the advantage of the job, high visibility and name recognition as the daughter of former President Sukarno, and wide recognition as an opposition leader against President Soeharto. On top of all these things, she has mobilized a lot of funding for the elections.

However, Megawati's achievements as president have been disappointing: Unemployment is up and the cost of living has increased, especially for ordinary people; she is seen as being too close to the TNI; and her party, the PDI-P, is in a mess. The party is split at the Central Committee level as well as at the local and grass roots levels.

Even in Bali and East Nusa Tenggara, two bulwarks of the PDI-P, the party is split down the middle because many members have been disappointed with her handling of the Bali bombings. She promised to oppose the national education law but did nothing when the PDI-P's legislators supported it. Most probably, the PDI-P will become the second party after Golkar with the loss of at least ten percent of the seats in the legislature.

Nonetheless, Megawati will most likely be …