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The race.
(From Philippine Daily Inquirer)
AS soon as the results of the latest Social Weather Stations survey came out, the spin doctors immediately went to work. To be sure, there is plenty for supporters of both President Macapagal-Arroyo and opposition coalition candidate Fernando Poe Jr. to crow about, but before their PR offensives get out of hand, let us note the following.
The snapshot of the presidential race taken in mid-January-Poe at 36, Ms Macapagal at 27, ex-senator Raul Roco at 19, Sen. Panfilo Lacson at 11-is significant precisely because someone is not in the picture. The decision of Sen. Noli de Castro to run for vice president has in large part determined the position of the runners at this stage of the race.
In the November survey, SWS found that Poe, at 25, and De Castro, at 24, were statistically tied for the lead. In the January survey, commissioned by the ABS-CBN network and the Manila Standard, the results showed that De Castro's bloc of votes seems to have been almost evenly split between Poe and the President.
By naming De Castro as her running mate, by drawing him out of the race, Ms Macapagal found the momentum she needed to overtake Roco. The spike in her rating-10 points, from 17-is about the same as the increase in Poe's ratings between September and November last year, when he led the pack for the first time. Between November and January, however, Poe added another 11 points to his lead.
The opposition line, therefore, is that Poe's victory is inevitable, following two successive quarters of 11-point increases. But it is foolhardy to extrapolate from this surge that the next quarter will bring yet another double-digit increase. For one thing, the conditions in March or April, the time of the next survey, right smack in the middle of the national campaign period, will be dramatically different.
The administration line is that the two-person race they've wanted all along is now coming into view, with the possibility of Roco and Lacson dropping out of the race reduced to a question of when, not if. We can be ...
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