If I had to pick a Final Four team today, it'd be ...(Counterpoints)

Duke

The surest bet for the 2004 Final Four is CBS analyst Billy Packer. He has been there every year since 1975. I like his odds to make it again. But if I must pick a guy who'll bring along a team, Duke's Mike Krzyzewski seems a logical choice. He has been courtside nearly as often as Packer.

If Duke makes it to San Antonio, Krzyzewski will become the third coach to reach double figures in Final Four trips. But even though Coach K's history helps--and his direction is essential--he can't get there without an excellent team. He's got that.

Point guard Chris Duhon has recovered from a substandard junior season to play under control and take charge of his team. He's even shooting better.

The rotation is in order, with veteran Daniel Ewing apparently comfortable in the role of adding punch off the bench. Duke has the size, depth and muscle in the frontcourt that Arizona, Kentucky and North Carolina don't have. A Duke defense that seemed lifeless at the start held Texas to 61 points and Michigan State to 50. Duke also has the most talented college player, freshman forward Luol Deng.

The last two Final Fours have been contested without the Blue Devils. Since 1986, though, they've endured only one other multiyear absence. They've made it so often, the NCAA ought to consider changing the name of the event to Duke and the Other Three.--Mike DeCourcy

Arizona