ARAB CONSUMERS MORE NUMEROUS- LESS PROSPEROUS.

(From Market - Africa/Mid-East)

Arab nations comprise one of the fastest growing consumer bases in the world, yet rising unemployment and an inability to attract private investment will undermine private sector consumption for the foreseeable future

Private sector consumption in the Arab World is likely to fall short of its growth potential. "The United Nations Arab Human Development Report" estimates that population in the region would double by 2020, reaching a level somewhere between 400 and 460 million inhabitants. The number of jobs being created is falling well short of growth in the labor force and the result will be long-term upward pressure on unemployment and weak consumer confidence

Nations that are most heavily impacted by unemployment and associated poverty include Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Yemen. Those nations will find it difficult to attract urgently needed foreign direct investment, and that will inhibit demand for capital goods and industrial inputs

Labor markets in the region will expand at a rate of 2 to 3 percent per annum through the remainder of this decade. According to the United Nations report, 50 million jobs must be created from 2002 through 2010 in order to keep pace with rising demand for employment in the Arab World. For that to take place, GDP expansion must average 7 percent throughout the region. Nations that will fall farthest short of that target include Egypt, Libya, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Yemen

With the exception of the Gulf Cooperation Council nations and Morocco, growth in household consumption will be anemic throughout 2004 and 2005. Persistent ...