Second thoughts on success.(What's Next in Iraq?)

Appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press" on September 14, Vice President Cheney applauded the TAE poll for having revealed "very positive news ... with respect to [Iraqi] attitudes of what Americans have done." It is not at all clear from which of the survey's findings Cheney managed to glean "very positive news." True, more Iraqis choose the United States as a model than, say, Saudi Arabia or Egypt. True, Iraq's Shiites seem fairly optimistic about the prospects for democracy in a land that for decades has known only dictatorship. And, true, most Iraqis have no use for an Islamic theocracy. On the most important questions of the day, however, I believe the poll yields something other than very positive news.

To begin with, half of all respondents say Western democracy will not work in Iraq, versus 38 percent who believe it will. More respondents than not believe the United States will hurt Iraq over the long run, while a dear majority would prefer that Washington and London play no role in reconstituting Iraq's government. In a similar vein, 66 percent of Iraqis believe that U.S. and British forces should stay in Iraq for one more year or less. And while it is true that more Iraqis would choose the United States as a model when set against Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, or Iran separately, it is also true that most Iraqis prefer a government modeled after one or the other of those Arab states.

During the run-up to the war in Iraq, many commentators, including the Vice President, various administration spokesmen, and this reporter, blithely predicted that the Iraqi people would greet their American liberators with bread and salt. Hence, during the early days of the occupation, U.S. authorities took a decidedly libetarian approach to the management of Iraq's affairs, rather than wielding the heavy hand that circumstances clearly required. I believe this was a costly mistake, for instead of gratitude, too many Iraqis have greeted us with sullen expressions, complaints, and improvised explosive devices. ...