What Iraqis really think.(What Next In Iraq?)

In Iraq, as in all countries, there are extremists, apathetic people, optimists, individuals with conflicted views, and a large body in the middle of most questions. The most basic thing I take from TAE's new poll findings is that Iraq is much less fanatical, more mixed in its views, and more manageable, than we might have imagined.

The three most prominent nightmare scenarios for Iraq are that it will 1) cling to Saddamism, or 2) become a hotbed for al-Qaeda-style jihadism, or 3) follow Iran down the path of mullah-ridden theocracy. I believe this poll shows that none of those three worries are very plausible.

Our question about whether the Baathists should be punished or forgiven gave Iraqis a chance to let bygones be bygones with the previous regime. But a thoroughly disgusted and unforgiving Iraqi public would have none of it, stating emphatically (by 4 to 1) that Saddam's henchmen should be punished. So forget about a Baath Party revival in Iraq.

I believe you can also cross out "bin Laden romance" from the list of potential disasters. Of Iraqis with an opinion, nearly six out of ten have an unfavorable view of Osama bin Laden-with 41 percent of them saying it is a very unfavorable view. (Women are especially down on him.)

There is a bit of a glass half-full/half-empty aspect to this. Upon seeing the significant minority of Iraqis who express sympathy for bin Laden, a friend who is a New York Times reporter suggested it's a serious problem that there is any support for him. I suggested that the right comparison in this case is to places like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan--where bin Laden is a folk hero to many people. And those are our closest regional allies! Keep in mind we're talking about the Middle East here, not exactly the land of moderation and Ameriphilia. I suggest the attitudes expressed by Iraqis are ones we can work with, as we do in other Middle Eastern countries.

When you look closely at the demographic cross-tabulations you see something interesting. The "Very unfavorables" toward bin Laden outrank the "Very favorables" by 2.5:1 in Mosul, by almost 4:1 in Basra, by 6:1 in Kirkuk. Only in Ramadi is the al-Qaeda boss popular--more than two thirds of his "Very favorable" responses come from that single location. I take this as one more aspect of the Sunni triangle/Baathist estrangement from the U.S. (the enemy of nay enemy is my friend).

The third mega-worry for Iraq is that it could repeat the Iranian disaster by turning into an Islamic theocracy. So we asked everyday Iraqis whether their country should have an Islamic government. Only a third said yes, a solid 60 percent said no. A vital detail: Shiites (whom Western reporters frequently portray as self-flagellating ayatollah-maniacs-in-waiting) are least receptive to the idea of an Islamic government, saying "No" by 66 to 27 percent. It is only among the minority Sunnis that there is interest in a religious state, and even they are split evenly on the question.