Margin of error.

(From Philippine Daily Inquirer)

THE LATEST Pulse Asia survey of likely presidential candidates has heightened the country's triennial malady: election fever. The results of the poll, taken between Nov. 4 and 17, were announced the same week Fernando Poe Jr. became the third popular movie actor in the country's history to seek the presidency.

Many media organizations led off the survey story by mentioning either ex-senator Raul Roco's lead in three of the most likely election scenarios, or Poe's surprising strength in two of them. If his numbers hold, Poe may well follow in the footsteps of his fellow actor and close friend, deposed President Joseph Estrada, rather than those of matinee idol Rogelio de la Rosa, who withdrew from the presidential race in 1961.

It is instructive to note, however, that the Pulse Asia news release did not focus on the survey leaders. Instead, the polling firm zeroed in on the statistical truth: "survey data indicate a close fight among the contenders for the presidency."

"If the May 2004 presidential elections were a three-way fight involving President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (Poe and Roco)... it would be a tight race to the finish between the last two personalities." Roco would get 35 percent of the votes, while Poe would win 34 percent.

"Meanwhile, if these three personalities and Sen. Panfilo Lacson were contesting the presidency, it would be a three-cornered fight" between the President (28 percent), Poe (28), and Roco (30).

In the press statement issued by Malacanang, the emphasis was naturally on a different scenario tested by the survey: an eight-candidate race, where the President led the pack with 24 percent of the vote. (In the 1992 elections, in a field that was just as crowded, Fidel Ramos won the presidency with just about the same proportion of the vote.)