Talk of war? It must be election time in Taiwan.

(From South China Morning Post)

The business of playing cross-strait politics appears to follow a well-trodden path, especially in the run-up to elections in Taiwan.

First we see the pro-independence candidate in Taiwan, perhaps lagging behind in the polls, busily committing himself to policies that he knows will be intimidating and provocative to the mainland. Then mainland officials respond by giving Taiwan a timely reminder of the PLA's military might, perhaps by firing the odd test missile or by resorting to hawkish rhetoric. In turn, the Taiwanese voters react by showing they will not be swayed by sabre-rattling - and promptly throw their support behind the pro-independence candidate.

This is precisely the scenario we have been witnessing in recent weeks. Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian was, in September, trailing in the opinion polls, with one putting him more than 20 per cent behind. So he resorted to methods that experience has shown tend to be productive. This month he embarked on a high-profile trip to the US and Panama. During the visit Mr Chen managed to shake hands with US Secretary of State Colin Powell, pulling off something of a diplomatic coup. Sharp words of criticism from the mainland were to follow. Next, Mr Chen unveiled a timetable for a new Taiwanese constitution, providing for a referendum on the issue in 2006. This, he knew, would further inflame passions on ...