Bull market for republicanism?(Forward Observer)

As a financial writer at heart, marooned in Washington, I frequently find that finance provides the right context--and the right words--for understanding politics. For instance, the results of the November 2 election bring to mind two financial terms: "secular" and "capitulation."

Secular: In financial jargon, "secular" has nothing to do with religion or the lack of it. Instead, the word means "long term," "enduring."

The victory of President Bush was not mainly the result (as the Democrats would have it) of a rise in religious intolerance, or the inadequacy of their own candidate, or a failure of their get-out-the-vote effort. The key factor was a powerful secular trend toward the Republican Party and conservatism.

Starting in 1932, when Franklin Roosevelt beat Herbert Hoover, Democrats held the White House for 32 of the next 48 years. They held both houses of Congress for 44 of those years. There was a secular trend toward the Democratic Party.

But from 1980, when Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter, until the end of George W. Bush's second term, Republicans will hold the White House for 20 of 28 years. They will hold the Senate for 16 of 26 years, and the House for 12 years in a row. Republicans currently control 28 of the 50 governorships, including those of the four largest states, plus both houses of 21 state legislatures, versus 20 for the Democrats--a far cry from 1990, when Democrats had an advantage of 30-6.

What's responsible for the secular change? Three major explanations: 1) the literal dying-out of the New Deal generation, the core of the Democratic Party for a half-century; 2) a backlash against the cultural revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, whose main products, in addition to some good music, were increases in crime, divorce rates, drug use, and out-of-wedlock births; and 3) the rise of the investor class, which has brought the interests of average Americans more closely in tune with those of businesses.

An analysis of exit-poll data conducted for investors Action, a new organization for America's small investors that I helped launch, found that 70 percent of voters on November 2 were investors--that is, owners of stocks, bonds, or mutual funds. Investors backed Bush, 52 percent ...