A grim future for Mr Blair...

(From Yorkshire Post)

WHEN Tony Blair returns from his extended Christmas holiday, how will he contemplate the year ahead? On the face of things, with some optimism. Labour is, after all, riding high in the opinion polls, the opposition is failing to make up any ground and he is set to take advantage of the situation by calling a General Election in May in which he is expected to romp home for a third, final, triumphant term.

As the Prime Minister knows, however, the reality is very different. Labour's poll lead is accompanied by a deep public antipathy towards Mr Blair himself. Survey after survey shows voters believing that he is not to be trusted, that they were deceived over the reasons for going to war in Iraq and that they are force-fed a diet of spin and deception by a singularly devious government. That the opposition parties cannot capitalise on this is due partly to their own failings but also to a general disillusionment with all politicians, a cynicism which New Labour's chicanery has helped to feed.

Mr Blair, however, remains an optimist. As his recent speeches have revealed, he still believes that he can leave a great political legacy, that one more term will offer him the opportunity to complete all that he has left undone and to make a graceful handover to his successor.

Battle But what are the chances of this vision being fulfilled? Mr Blair ended the old year by bidding a reluctant farewell to one of his most trusted and reliable lieutenants in David Blunkett and he appears to have few political allies of similar calibre to call upon. Gordon Brown, who still believes himself to be the heir apparent and has been busily extending his influence across the Government, is positioning himself for the succession battle and commands far greater popularity in the party than does Mr Blair. He also appears more formidable than any of Mr Blair's chosen champions, such as Alan Milburn.

Given this situation, and the fact that Mr Blair would have to leave office well before the end of a third term, to give his successor the chance to prepare for an election, there is every likelihood that, for his final few years in power, he would be regarded as a lame-duck premier. With all around him jockeying for position ahead of the succession, what chance would Mr Blair have to rack up the kind of achievements he envisages? Considering the opposition he faced, from within his own party, over a comparatively modest reform such as foundation hospitals, how can he hope to achieve the kind of radical measures he appears to envisage? Mr Blair has talked of radical reform ever since he became Labour leader, but his record of achievement in the domestic sphere is lamentable. The fact that he recognises this will surely spur him on in any third term. But what would he settle for as a suitable ...