How lawsuits brought on the flu vaccine shortage: one lawsuit seeks $30 billion in damages, even though the entire vaccine market is valued at only $5 billion. Considering such obstacles, why on earth would any business want to make vaccines? They wouldn't. And most don't.(Speaking Out)

If you think the lines for flu shots are long now, imagine what would happen in the event of a global pandemic.

Most people who needed flu shots wouldn't get them. The immunization system would collapse. An underground market would appear, disrupting already-distorted supply and demand patterns. Instead of 36,000 U.S. deaths caused by flu each year, there could be hundreds of thousands.

Worst-case scenario? Yes. Out of the question? Hardly.

"The influenza pandemic is a major public health threat with the potential to cause a rapid increase in morbidity and mortality," Howard Pien, president and CEO of Chiron Corp., recently told a congressional committee.

Pien should know. He's the man at the center of this season's vaccine storm. His California-based company took the fall after regulators declared its Liverpool, England, factory contaminated. In one fell swoop, 47 million flu shots were gone.

The 2004 flu vaccine shortage is…