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It happens every year: Like college students who spend their last bit of meal money on lottery tickets, some teams just can't stop themselves from going nuts when the free-agent market opens.
For those clubs lacking self-control, a bit of advice: Avoid underachieving players trying to cash in on a walk year (see A.J. Burnett) or guys who got hot while performing on a big stage (see Carlos Beltran circa 2004).
This year's free-agent crop promises to be a lot juicier than last year's, so plenty of players will bank huge coin. But not every club will pack sanity on its trip to the marketplace.
Fifth Avenue Great merchandise, if you have the cash
0F/2B Alfonso Soriano, Nationals. So much for cavernous RFK Stadium sending Soriano's numbers diving like a Washington politician's approval ratings. Soriano still is bombing the ball (17 homers, 34 RBIs) and stealing bases (12 in 16 attempts). He reluctantly moved to the outfield in spring training, but the switch could pay off big: His newfound versatility might make him more attractive to the Yankees, who could be in the market for a corner outfielder.
LHP Mark Mulder, Cardinals. No one--probably not Veven A.J. Burnett--was happier than Mulder when the Blue Jays signed Burnett to a $55 million contract last winter. Both pitchers were born in 1977, and Mulder has better career numbers and fewer injury concerns than Burnett did when he entered the free-agent market. Plus, Mulder is lefthanded. He'll be able to get a bigger deal than Burnett; you and Mulder can take that to the bank.
LF Carlos Lee, Brewers. Albert Pujols isn't the only National League hitter putting up video game numbers. Since he was traded to Milwaukee before the 2005 season, Lee has proved he can carry an offense. Let's just hope his back is strong enough to support his wallet.