From the editor.(New Orleans as industrial location considering its weather factors)(Editorial)

In September, I had the opportunity to visit New Orleans as part of a group of journalists who were interested in learning about the ports and maritime industry in the region. What I learned about instead, was how to evacuate when "the big one" appears to be bearing down on The Big Easy from the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, I was in town when Ivan the Terrible was churning through the Caribbean and the Gulf.

Rest assured that, the week before my scheduled trip, I had kept a close eye on the tropics--friends and co-workers were starting to refer to me as a Weather Channel junkie. The Friday before my scheduled Monday departure, there appeared to be very little chance--according to the National Hurricane Center--that New Orleans would be in Ivan's path. Sunday afternoon, between the 1:00 and 4:00 NFL games, Ivan's projected path took a slight turn to the northwest. The probability of the center passing within 65 miles of the city within five days was 10 percent. A high enough percentage to make me think twice while packing for the trip. With the Monday morning forecast, the probability was down to 8 percent, so off to the airport I went.

I arrived in New Orleans at about 4:30 in the afternoon. All seemed quiet. At 6:00, the mayor held a press conference to announce voluntary evacuations of the city. By the time our group convened for our first scheduled meeting--dinner at a very fine restaurant--the main event on our Tuesday itinerary had already been canceled. We were scheduled to take a helicopter tour of the Port of New Orleans, but our helicopter was needed to evacuate crews from the oil rigs in the Gulf.

On Tuesday, at 6 a.m. Central Time, the probability that ...