Interview With Fired Sinclair Broadcast Group Employee; Politics of Fear - Part 1.

(From CNN News)

Byline: Neil Cavuto

PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: And good evening and welcome to PRIME TIME POLITICS on a night with a late development in the battle over Sinclair Broadcasting's decision to air a controversial anti-Kerry documentary. It has cost one Sinclair employee his job -- more on that in just a moment. Also, the politics of fear. Both sides say the other threatens our Social Security. Are there reasons to be afraid?

And a split decision: Kerry wins the debates, but Bush gets the bump in the polls. Go figure.

Well, here we are, 15 days, 360 hours, 21,600 minutes, give or take -- that is an accurate count, I'll tell you. But over the next two weeks, you're going to be swamped with numbers. You can count on new polls every day and a tightening focus on the electoral map, all this while most of you wait to vote the candidate you've already chosen and the rest of you make up your minds.

With those 15 days hanging in the balance, here's our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, on where things stand and what those numbers mean.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): The polls are shifting. Five national polls have been taken since the third and final debate last week. The CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows George W. Bush leading John Kerry by eight percentage points among likely voters. The "Newsweek" poll has Bush ahead by six. The latest ABC news/ "Washington Post" tracking poll has Bush up by four. Investor's business daily also has Bush ahead by four. The "TIME" magazine poll shows Bush leading by two. Average the five polls and you get our poll of polls. And it shows Bush 50, Kerry 45. That's a gain for Bush since last week's poll of polls, which showed him just one point ahead. The end of the debates is a signal to many voters, time to decide. According to the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, Bush's gains are strongest among three groups, voters under 50, where the president has gained 12 points in the past week and now has a strong lead, urban voters, where he's gained 10 points, and low-income voters, where Bush is now getting nearly half the vote.

Why are younger, poorer, more urban voters, who can usually be relied on to favor the Democrat, moving toward Bush? The answer in a word, terrorism.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The choice we face in this election, the first presidential election since September 11, it's how our nation will defeat this threat.

SCHNEIDER: A week ago, the president had a 14-point lead over Senator Kerry on who can better handle terrorism. His lead is now 25 points. Younger voters, many of whom are parents, tend to be very worried about terrorism. Urban and low-income voters feel vulnerable because they live in large cities.

Among voters under 50, Bush's advantage on terrorism grew by 10 points. Among urban voters who saw the senator as better on terrorism a week ago, the president now has the lead on that issue, as he does among low-income voters. Republicans want to make this the 9/11 election. That may be happening.

(on camera): Paula, our poll shows people do think Kerry won the last debate. In fact, people feel he won all three debates, but perhaps the qualities people value in a good debater are not as important as the qualities they're looking for when they're picking a leader to protect the country.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: Thank you very much, Bill.

And joining me now from Washington, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Republican pollster John McLaughlin.

Great to see both of you. Welcome. (CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: So, Linda, regardless of which poll you look at, the numbers are moving in the wrong direction for John Kerry. Let's look at some of these together. What's behind this?

CELINDA LAKE, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER: Well, I think that what you're looking at is national polls.

And of course, what really matters are the battleground polls. If you look at the red…