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NACM Survey Sees Weakening of Credit Conditions.(National Association of Credit Management)
Columbia, MD -- A survey of credit professionals showed a "worrisome" downward trend in sentiment in January, according to the National Association of Credit Management.
While the index continues to suggest that the economy is reasonably strong, Dan North, chief economist with credit insurer Euler Hermes ACI, noted that NACM's January index number of 53.7, while positive, is down sharply from November's 57.4. Numbers above 50 suggest that respondents see economic growth. And he worries that if consumer finance sources such as home-equity credit dry up, that could create further deterioration.
But NACM noted that three of the index's 10 components are now below 50. The manufacturing sector has fallen for seven of the last nine months - six out of nine for services - and in January, seven of 10 components fell in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
These data reflect trends in some of the most recent macroeconomic data: weak fourth-quarter GDP of 1.1%, a faltering housing market, and below expectations reports for both December job growth and from the Institute of Supply Management Index, the NACM said.
"Once again, high energy costs, rising interest rates, a flat yield curve and a weakening housing market are the major drags on the economy," Mr. North said in a NACM news release. "The consumer has been the offsetting factor, which has kept the economy growing and the CMI above 50, but consumers could hit a rough patch if their two sources of funding dry up - financing from home equity and credit cards, and incomes, which are falling below consumption. The overall picture suggests that business conditions could weaken in the spring, given the possibility of a consumer slowdown and the trends in the CMI."
The first month of the new year saw little change to the manufacturing sector. The CMI ended January 2006 just slightly below the December 2005 level, down 60 basis points, to end at 52.4%.
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Source: HighBeam Research, NACM Survey Sees Weakening of Credit Conditions.(National Association...