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Washington -- MBA chief economist Douglas Duncan said in the association's recent long-term economic forecast that core inflation is likely to edge higher this year, but that it will remain contained.
Still, the MBA expects mortgage rates to edge modestly higher this year, leading to a 40% decline in home loan refinancing activity.
The MBA estimates that mortgage origination volume totaled $2.79 trillion in 2005. The association predicts that volume will drop by 19.5% to $2.24 trillion this year, with a decline in refinancing being the primary culprit, and expects only a modest decline in originations for home purchases.
The MBA expects the Federal Reserve Board's tightening of monetary policy to continue through March of this year to ensure that inflation remains under control. The MBA predicts that the Fed will halt the tightening cycle after two additional increases this year.
From a broader economic perspective, the MBA expects to continue seeing a flat yield curve environment. Already, the spread between rates on fixed-rate mortgage products and adjustable products has narrowed significantly. As a result, the MBA expects the share of adjustable-rate mortgages to decline through 2008.
The MBA expects the yield on 10-year Treasury notes will rise to 4.8% by the end of this year, remaining at that level through next year. ...
Source: HighBeam Research, Long-Term Forecast Also Sees Lower Prepay Volume.