Squeeze play.(FANTASY SOURCE)

What's the biggest mistake you can make as you prepare for your draft? Other than considering any Cubs starting pitcher a must-own, it is putting too much weight on a specific category. Whether yours is a 5x5 or points league, the big booby traps are wins and homers.

Why shouldn't you judge a starting pitcher by his wins total? Because he has little control over wins and losses. A guy can pitch a gem and lose a 1-0 shutout or turn a lead over to a bullpen anchored by Jose Mesa. Kevin Millwood led the American League with a 2.86 ERA last season but finished 9-11. John Patterson (3.13) and Jarrod Washburn (3.20) also failed to win 10 games.

Who wouldn't want a 20-homer guy on his team? Well, what if that player had nearly three strikeouts for every walk, hit .241 and had 58 RBIs? Meet Casey Blake, who was an asset in just one 5x5 category last season. And how about points-league detriment Carl Everett, who hit 23 homers but only had 19 other extra-base hits? Among 20-homer sluggers, Everett's 213 total bases were near the worst.

Thirteen wins might seem like a solid benchmark, but 53 pitchers reached that plateau in 2005. Likewise, 78 players hit at least 20 homers.

A slugger who also hits for average and steals bases is gold, but those are as rare as people who'll admit they paid to see Bewitched. Fifteen-game winners also are rare, but does that make Rodrigo Lopez valuable? Not when you consider his 1.41 WHIP, 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings and 4.90 ERA.

Get too homer-happy and you'll end up with a roster resembling a beer-league softball team's. Chase wins and you'll end up like last year's Carl Pavano owners.

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