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Ginnie Mae Prepayments Outpace GSE Rates.
Speeds slowed across the board in July for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities, while Ginnie Mae MBS speeds also slowed but remained "significantly faster than comparable conventionals," according to Bear Stearns analyst Dale Westhoff.
Among Fannie Maes, the 2003 vintage 30-year 5.0% and 5.5% coupons slowed by constant prepayment rates of 1.3 CPR and 3 CPR, respectively, while the 6.0% through 7.0% coupons slowed by 7-10 CPR, Mr. Westhoff said.
"We expect minimal market reaction to these numbers given that they are generally in line with market consensus," he said. "Nevertheless, there may be a sigh of relief from higher-coupon pass-through and [interest-only] investors as a substantial slowdown finally takes hold in all of these issues."
As for the gap between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac speeds, Mr. Westhoff said the slowdowns in July were "nearly identical" for the two agencies' MBS, leaving Freddie Mac speeds "modestly slower" than their Fannie Mae counterparts. This continuing phenomenon "may be linked to geographic/servicer differences," he said.
Among Ginnie Maes, Mr. Westhoff said Bear Stearns believes that "the erosion in the credit performance of FHA/VA loans is adding up to 4 CPR" to baseline Ginnie Mae prepayments, pushing them "well above" comparable Fannie Maes in most issues.
"Contrary to many expectations, today's report has widened the prepayment differential" between Fannies and Ginnies, he said. "Indeed," he added, "we think it is unlikely that [Ginnie Mae] discount/cusp prepayments will ever converge to conventional levels under the ...
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