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Financial directions - Europe on road to economic recovery.
(From Financial Director)
Byline: Graeme Johnston.
Economic background
Some leading economic indicators have started to turn down, but they suggest nothing more than a cooling in the pace of the global recovery. There is a modest upturn in inflationary pressure. Against that background, a return to a more neutral monetary policy in the US could be expected, which could easily mean the 3% or so interest rate implied by futures markets in 12 months. Bond yields rose sharply to the highest levels since late 2000. This reflected national rather than global considerations - a growing consensus that the long-awaited, self-sustaining domestic recovery was in place.
Equities
Equity markets may have shrugged off the increase in rates for the moment, but an extended period of monetary tightening will undermine valuation support. The strength of corporate profits will be enough (if not by much) to shore markets up. Hence, our modestly overweight position. Global equities are in the middle of a fairly tight trading range. They have been in this range for most of the past nine months and we are therefore not inclined to tweak our strategic position. However, we will continue to identify opportunities arising from some of the bigger swings in ...
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