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(From Financial Director)
Byline: Dennis Turner.
A general election must be in the offing. Both major political parties are trying to outbid each other with the savings they claim can be made from civil service job cuts and public sector efficiency gains. Gordon Brown upped the ante in July. In his Comprehensive Spending Review, he identified substantial savings he thinks are needed to keep his ambitious spending plans for public services on track without raising taxes or increasing borrowing.
The Chancellor now plans to axe about 84,000 Whitehall civil servants over four years, and up to 20,000 more from local, Welsh and Scottish government, plus relocating 20,000 others away from London. The Treasury believes administrative costs across Whitehall can be reduced by 6% a year in real terms, saving about GBP2bn. This is on top of the 2.5% annual efficiency gains announced in the Budget, which Brown says will make GBP20bn a year available by 2007-08 for frontline public services.
This biannual review sets out spending plans for the next three years. With the money he hopes to generate, Brown will be able to increase current spending by an average of 2.5% pa in real terms between 2006 and 2008, while public sector investment is set to rise from 2% to 2.25% of GDP in the period. By 2008, the government will be spending GBP580bn, or about GBP2.3bn every working day. This compares with GBP1.3bn a day 10 years ago.
Critics of the government usually make two telling points about Brown's spending. First, they admit that while he showed great restraint in his early years in office, his spending has been growing faster than GDP in the past few years. This is absolutely true and so the government's share of total spending has been edging upwards, from 37% in 1999 (admittedly a 30-year low) to an expected 41.5% in 2005. This has led to charges of a return to tax and spend Labour government but, viewed in an international context, they seem to be exaggerated.
Even with the recent acceleration, government spending in the UK remains low by European levels. The average for the EU15 is 47.4%, while in France, Finland, Denmark and Sweden the share is above 50%. Only in Spain and Ireland is the proportion of government spending to national income lower than in the UK. It would appear that Brown's boost to the public sector ...